Metals Mostly Rose, Copper Futures Continued to Climb to Near Six-Month High, Still Affected by US Tariffs [March 25 LME Close]

On Tuesday, March 25, copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) continued to rise to their highest level in nearly six months, as traders continued speculative buying based on expectations of US tariffs, and the US dollar weakened after the release of US data. At 17:00 London time (01:00 Beijing time on March 26), three-month copper futures rose by $156, or 1.57%, to $10,112 per mt, hitting a high of $10,130, the strongest since September 30, after a 1% increase on Monday. During the European afternoon trading session, the US dollar weakened due to tariff uncertainties and a fourth consecutive monthly decline in US consumer confidence in March, which fueled the rise in copper prices. A weaker US dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for buyers using other currencies. Traders have been racing to push up copper prices, especially for New York copper futures, after the US ordered an investigation into the possibility of imposing tariffs on imported copper to rebuild US production. The most active May Comex copper futures climbed 2.2% to a record high of $5.21 per pound, pushing the Comex premium over LME to $1,372 per mt or nearly 14%. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank in Copenhagen, said, "This is still about arbitrage trading and the ability to move copper to the US to lock in thin profits. It seems that the premium is stabilizing in the middle range between zero and 25% tariffs." "This market is extremely difficult to trade now. This is not a surge in end-user demand. It is a technical transfer of inventory from one place to another." Hansen added that there have been concerns that importing copper into the US would lead to shortages in other regions, but technical indicators in the LME market do not show such concerns. The price spread between LME spot and three-month contracts remains at a discount of $10 per mt, rather than a premium, which would indicate a supply deficit.